Legislature(2001 - 2002)
04/26/2001 03:40 PM Senate STA
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* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
SJR 13-CONST. AM: PERMANENT FUND
CLARK GRUENING, Alaska Permanent Fund Board of Trustees Chair, gave
the following testimony in support of SJR 13.
For the last five years, the board of trustees has discussed a
notion referred to as a pay out of market value, the endowment
model and what could be done to strengthen inflation proofing. The
current inflation proofing was passed into statute in 1982 and
implemented in 1983.
There is no investment that can be identified as principal in the
Permanent Fund, it's a notional concept and it is a figure that
does not fluctuate with the market. MR. GRUENING said,
It is simply the amount of oil revenues that are mandated
by the constitution plus, what I would call, voluntary
either additional contributions under the formula that
takes it out of our mineral wealth or by the statute
itself that calls for an appropriation and voluntary
additional appropriations. Those voluntary
appropriations, both inflation proofing and additional
appropriations to principal, have totaled a little over
$13 billion.
We are now approaching a time in which the fund may be asked to do
more than it is now so you must be clear on the priorities. The
trustees feel strongly that the fund is permanent and an inflation-
proofing proposal that establishes it in the constitution using the
endowment model that has a payout limit is the most effective way
to inflation-proof the entire fund.
It's a simple concept but it raises many questions about the impact
it may have on statutes. The trustees believe the amendment itself
requires no statutory change. This does not mandate a payout; it is
a payout limit.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT said they had received a memo from Tamara Cook,
Director of Legislative Legal & Research Services, with a number of
questions. If they weren't answered during the course of the
presentation they would address them afterwards.
JIM KELLY, Director of Communications for the Alaska Permanent Fund
Corporation gave the following power point presentation.
SJR 13 accomplishes inflation proofing by limiting the annual
payout of fund income to no more than 5 percent of the fund's five-
year average market value. They think it accomplishes three things:
1. It protects the purchasing power of the entire fund.
2. It provides the maximum amount of sustainable income to
benefit the current and future generations.
3. It minimizes fluctuations in annual payouts.
If the legislature approves SJR 13, the general public approves it
in the general election of November 2002 and it goes into effect in
February 2003. Over time, the fund will have retained everything
it needs to be protected against inflation while the rest of the
income would be available for the legislature to use.
The benefits
1. SJR 13 provides constitutional protection, which is different
than the existing inflation proofing and therefore enhanced.
Although the legislature has done very well during the last 18
years, this is better because it's in the constitution and
ensures that it will go on if things change in the future.
2. It maximizes the total amount of fund income which can be paid
out in the future and does so in a way that balances the
fund's benefits fairly between current and future generations.
3. It increases the likelihood that both the fund's principal and
income will continue to grow in perpetuity in both nominal and
real, inflation-adjusted dollars. The purchasing power of the
principal and the money available to spend will go up.
4. The 5 percent limit is actually higher than the amount that is
being paid out now for dividends. If the dividend program
continues as it is now, but with the 5 percent limit, there
would be about $175- $300 million of additional money that
could be spent on a sustainable basis and that would grow over
time as the fund grew.
5. The market value payout is one that institutions similar to
the Permanent Fund use and have used for many years and
conforms more to generally accepted accounting principals
(GAAP) than what is currently used. This is because generally
accepted accounting principals have changed and the statutes
haven't.
6. Legislators will know how much money is available from the
Permanent Fund every January.
The analysis
Principal and inflation-proofing.
Under SJR 13, both the Fund's principal and the earnings reserve
account would be inflation-proofed by constitutional mandate. In
addition, there would be two constitutional limits on Permanent
Fund spending: (1) principal would continue to be unavailable for
appropriation; and (2) appropriations from the earnings reserve
account in the future would be limited to no more than 5 percent of
the fund's average market value for the past five years. This would
provide full inflation-proofing averaged over long periods of time.
Accordingly, statutory inflation-proofing transfers to principal
would no longer be necessary.
Earnings reserve.
This proposal enhances the earnings reserve by allowing inflation-
proofing to accumulate with the constitutional protection against
it being spent by a subsequent legislature. It allows money to
continue to accumulate in the earnings reserve account which would
provide a cushion if there are several poor years in a row. At the
beginning of this year the earnings reserve account had $6.5
billion and it fell to under $4 billion because of the market
decline. In 2003, the fund's five-year average market value is
projected at $28 billion, which would limit the maximum payout that
year to no more than $1.4 billion.
5 percent payout.
The 5 percent limit is chosen for three reasons: (1) 5 percent is
on the high end of sustainable payout rate that still maintains the
fund's real value; (2) 5 percent allows greater distributions over
time than a higher payout; and (3) 5 percent is what the majority
of endowments pay out; e.g., 85 percent of all public endowment
funds pay out 5 percent or less, and the median payout of
endowments, according to a 1999 Greenwich Associates study, is 4.9
percent.
Side B
Five-year averaging.
Under SJR 13, the annual payout may not exceed 5 percent of the
fund's market value averaged over the prior five years, including
the fiscal year just ended. This methodology is chosen to dampen
volatility and is consistent with the existing statutory five-year
averaging provision for computation of the annual dividend.
20-year perspective.
Under SJR 13, if the full 5 percent of the fund's five-year average
market value was paid out, the fund would earn $57 billion of total
investment return over the next 20 years, $28 billion of which
would be earmarked for dividends and $20 billion to inflation-
proofing, leaving $9 billion in residual income available for
appropriation. The ending market value of the fund in 2020 would be
$51 billion.
Dividends.
This proposal does not affect the existing dividend program. It
should be noted, however, that any future public policy decision to
use an additional portion of fund income for any purpose will
affect the dividend, as will market volatility, but under SJR 13,
these impacts would either be equal or diminished compared to the
status quo.
Residual income available for appropriation.
Except in the case of extraordinarily good financial markets, the 5
percent limit set by SJR 13 is above what is required to pay
dividends per current law, leaving a residual amount available for
appropriation. If the entire 5 percent was paid out, the residual
amount is expected to range from $175-$300 million per year in a
median case, growing over time as the Fund grows. Because of the
mechanics of the existing statutory dividend formula, however, if
the dividend is extraordinarily high in any one year, the amount of
the residual could be reduced to zero.
MR. GRUENING said there is a sincere desire to have a full
discussion about the legislation. The concept of a permanent fund
had been around many years before the ninth legislature acted and
they took two years to discuss and review it. He commented,
If the 22nd legislature passed this, this would be the
most significant addition to our constitution since the
permanent fund original amendment. I can't think of
anything that would leave a greater legacy for the people
of Alaska than this; but that's something that they have
to be convinced of.
This not only requires a two-thirds vote of each body, it also
requires a majority vote. The political effort and review that
needs to be expended is perhaps greater than with the original
amendment. Although the concept is simple, it is not an easy
decision even though the impact would be profound and deeply
appreciated by Alaskans.
SENATOR PHILLIPS asked whether there was an expectation that the
legislation would be moved this session and if it passed through
both bodies would the corporation and trustees be in charge of
educating the public.
MR. KELLY said they were selling the idea now and would continue to
sell it as long as it has a chance of passage.
SENATOR PHILLIPS asked whether they would be taking credit for the
plan rather than giving that credit to the legislature.
MR. GRUENING responded it is their plan but the legislature would
have to take a two-thirds ownership in the plan at some point.
SENATOR PHILLIPS pointed out that in 1976 there was a legislative
proposal to form the permanent fund, and this time the concept is
coming from the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation and Alaska
Permanent Fund Board of Trustees, not the legislature. It should be
clear that it is their idea and the legislature is simply giving
them the opportunity to defend it. "If it goes sour, I don't want
to hear it was my team that did this."
MR. KELLY said they like this proposal, and they have been studying
it intensively for the last five years and discussing it for much
longer than that. Of course there may be unintended and unknown
consequences but the board is unanimously and strongly in support
of the proposal.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT said he has had a number of discussions with
both presenters and he wanted to briefly touch on them so they
would be a matter of record.
First, Tamara Cook, the Director of Legislative Legal and Research
Services, noted that in drafting the resolution there were a number
of exceptions to standard drafting procedures with regard to the
title, the contents and the way information is shown.
The title says the resolution is relating to inflation-proofing the
permanent fund and it does not really do that. It does not make
appropriations to the permanent fund. In fact, testimony today was
that statutes that make a yearly appropriation might not be
advisable to continue.
There was some confusion about whether or not a copy of the
memorandum from Ms. Cook was sent to Mr. Gruening or Mr. Kelly.
MR. KELLY said inflation-proofing does not appear in current
statutes. The proposal will provide for the effects of inflation in
a statutory formula. It provides for the effects of inflation by
limiting the payout to 5 percent. Over the next 75 years they
believe the fund will earn 8.25 percent and inflation will average
3l25 percent.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT remarked that individuals with a knowledge of
"how this works" know that there is a computation done on a yearly
basis on the consumer price index (CPI) then an appropriation is
made to offset that erosion. He was not sure whether they proposed
that statute stay in place and the computation and appropriation
continue to be made to the principal on a yearly basis or whether
they want to ensure a healthier buffer in the earnings reserve
instead.
MR. GRUENING responded that is a legislative decision. Currently
there is not a 5 percent payout. The only payout that is taking
place is for the dividend. That may change at some point and when
it does, there will be statutes that deal with that change. The
priority in the statutes now is the dividend and inflation-
proofing. The trustees have taken no position on not inflation-
proofing under the statute. As long as no more than 5 percent is
paid out, you are inflation-proofing the entire fund including the
earnings reserve and principal. This proposal could be passed now
and the current statutes could stay unchanged. However, at the
point at which other payouts are designed, if they stay within the
5 percent there is no need to additionally pay it into principal
because you would be reducing the earnings reserve. This is a
warning given when there are plans to appropriate money from the
earnings reserve to principal. There was a House bill that
deposited $250 million. There was a desire by some to deposit more.
The board's analysis is that would have created a situation in
which the dividend would have been affected. The same applies if
this amendment was in place; the board would give their projections
of what would happen as a result of any action including
appropriating a large sum out of the fund to the constitutional
budget reserve. That entire amount is available for appropriation,
not just the realized portion. Once the amendment is in place they
want to be clear that this would no longer be an option. Just 5
percent of the market value would be available. With this in mind,
they haven't taken an official position on that and they aren't
likely to do so. It's a legislative decision.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT noted that the trustees have been advised to
stay clear of policy decisions so he understands the reluctance to
take a stand. However, this would trigger a number of consequences
that the legislature would have to deal with.
MR. KELLY responded the legislature wouldn't have to deal with
consequences any more if this was passed than they do today.
Nothing has changed except the amount of money that may be removed
from the fund.
MR. GRUENING said what will really trigger events are external to
the fund. For instance, what will be done if the constitutional
budget reserve is near exhaustion? What will be done to reorder the
priorities to deal with this? This will need to be addressed
regardless of passage of the legislation. The proposal does not
drive this situation - it's already there. Because the trustees
want the permanent fund to be permanent, this proposal should be in
place.
SENATOR PHILLIPS noted they said it would not affect the dividend
but wondered whether there might not be some circumstances where it
would be affected.
MR. KELLY said if there is the 5 percent payout and the dividend
formula is left in place there is one circumstance in which the
dividend would be affected. If there are a number of
extraordinarily good years such as we just experienced, there is a
limit on how high the dividend can grow. However, analysis shows
that, at that point, the dividend would be between $3,000 and
$4,000 per person. If people were getting that size dividend there
probably won't be complaints because there was the 5 percent limit.
SENATOR PHILLIPS pointed out there were lots people that envisioned
$4,000 dividends.
MR. KELLY said this doesn't mean you can't have $4,000 dividends.
This gives the assurance there will be dividends that grow over
time as long as the fund grows.
MR. GRUENING said this goes to the question of inner-generational
equity and generations are addressed in the statutes. The maximum
sustainable yield of a fisheries stock is a workable analogy even
though the investment field is more predictable than the scientific
predictions of fisheries stocks. If you take six percent of the
stock rather than five percent, you can get more fish for awhile.
However, over the long term you'll pay for this in the outer years.
The permanent fund will take care of everyone now and our children
and grandchildren so we're looking at other generations. If we look
beyond our immediate needs to our children and grandchildren this
will look like a good idea. Even if your only support for the fund
is the fact that it gives a dividend, this makes sense. It's not
tied to a fiscal plan but to the idea you can get the maximum
distributions over time by limiting the payout to a reasonable
level.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT said,
The question about the 5 percent limiting the size of the
dividend is the product of the fact that if you have a 5
percent maximum payout and you have a separate
calculation that is the 5 year rolling average of the
realized earnings, you might have one that obligates you
or computes more money than you have money to pay.
MR. KELLY said that is correct.
MR. GRUENING agreed but said that is a very rare situation.
MR. KELLY said it is not only rare, it only happens on the top end
not the bottom end.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT commented that principal was not included in
the wording on page 1, line 9 & 10 that says, "All income from the
permanent fund shall be deposited in the permanent fund." He noted
they don't want it in the principal.
MR. KELLY said that is correct. They define permanent fund as it is
by statute, which is the principal and the earnings reserve
account.
For 20 years they have said there are two parts to the permanent
fund. There is the principal and there is the income. Principal is
defined as (1) oil revenues, (2) inflation-proofing and (3) special
appropriations. Everything else is earnings reserve account and
available for appropriation.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT asked about the possibility of principal
erosion if 5 percent of the value was withdrawn on a yearly basis
and there was a consecutive number of flat or negative years. Page
1, line 8 of the resolution says, "principal of which shall be used
only for those income-producing investments" while another part of
the constitution says you may have a draw of up to 5 percent of the
value. There could be situations in which those two are in conflict
and in drawing up to 5 percent there could be an erosion of the
principal. He was not sure the language on line 8 is strong enough
to prevent the erosion of principal value. Of course, the longer
money is put into the earnings reserve portion of the permanent
fund the less potential there would be for erosion of principal.
Individual Alaskans might look at this as a departure from what
they are accustomed to.
MR. GRUENING responded that they have discussed this question and
it is critical to the promotion of the proposal that they intend to
have no repeal or impairment of the prohibition that exists now.
Principal may not be spent. If there were any way to make this
clearer than it is now then he would be in favor of the change.
They don't want to lose any protection and they haven't changed the
wording. The discussion of whether there is a conflict tends to
come up in groups of attorneys and if enough attorneys work on
writing the amendment there is a great possibility that most people
won't be able to understand what has been written. They would like
to keep it as simple and straightforward as possible but if there
is doubt about their clear intention they would be open to changing
the wording. They did not touch the word principal, it still
exists.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT said the percentage that is dedicated by the
constitution, the 25 percent and any deposits made into principal
by the legislature to this point, including inflation-proofing and
any future oil revenues. It would include inflation-proofing if we
kept the statute that did the computation and the deposits but not
inflation-proofing if it was just the retention of earnings.
MR. KELLY said he understands it the way they do. For the record,
there are two limits: the first limit that cannot be breached is
you cannot invade principal; and second, you cannot payout more
than 5 percent of the market value. If there was a conflict between
the two limits, there would be less money to pay out and the
principal would still be protected.
MR. GRUENING said he doesn't believe they have received a copy of
the memo by Tamara Cook. He may have seen a copy in Chairman
Therriault's office but they don't have a copy in their files.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT said they would make sure a copy was sent. He
noted there was some tension between legislative counsel, permanent
fund counsel and the drafters.
MR. GRUENING replied it was in a different area.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT agreed and added style was also questioned. He
wanted to work toward ensuring that principal would still be
protected even in the unlikely situation there is a conflict
between the allowable 5 percent draw and where that money could
come from. He didn't know whether there was so much discussion in
the House that they deemed it unworkable.
MR. GRUENING said they didn't see the two as in conflict but they
would be happy to look at the memo.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT said the memo also pointed out the difficulties
involved for the amendment to "spring into effect in the middle of
a fiscal year" and she [Ms. Cook] suggested adding a July 1, 2003
effective date. "Otherwise, for part of the year the legislature
will be able to appropriate fund income, while at the end of the
same year it will have access to an amount based on market value of
the fund."
MR. KELLY said he had thought of that as well. The voters would
approve this in November and it would go into effect 90 days later,
which would be some time in February. The legislature meets in
January and the constitutional amendment won't be in effect. Until
that moment, everything in the earnings reserve account could be
withdrawn.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT said there is a real potential problem with
that. If the earnings reserve, which is the cushion that is
depended upon, is either transferred into principal or transferred
into the constitutional budget reserve before the effective date
for the new language, there would be a very real problem because
there might be no earnings reserve to provide the cushion to keep
from invading principal.
MR. KELLY said the problem is not with the methodology because it
continues to work. The problem is if you choose to do that you will
have put yourself at significant risk. If you did that, you would
have to be content living with the earnings for that year even if
they were negative.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT said that's if the language on page 1, line 8
supercedes the language about the 5 percent draw. Otherwise, that
potential conflict between the 5 percent allowable draw and whether
that can invade principal will be heightened because the cushion
might not be there anymore.
MR. GRUENING said that exists now regardless of whether or not the
amendment becomes part of the constitution. It's theoretically
possible but hopefully won't ever occur.
CHAIRMAN THERRIAULT said he would like this proposal to be
considered at the same time as the resolution sponsored by Senator
Ward that deals with the permanent fund. The resolution is
currently in the finance committee and unlikely to move out this
session. He would like to hear from committee members about the
issues and questions that have been raised before they reconsider
the resolution as a committee.
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